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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 8 at the 48

Tennessee Titans 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:09) 3-J.Hekker punts 33 yards to LAC 15, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -0.40 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.71 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.46 EP
KICK -0.86 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 14, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model