4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 64

Los Angeles Chargers 20 – Tennessee Titans 17

What Actually Happened

(13:28) 16-J.Scott punts 56 yards to TEN 8, Center-41-R.Lovato. 17-C.Dike to TEN 28 for 20 yards (0-D.Henley).

The Three Options

GO +0.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.04 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 64, worth -3.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.19 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 22, worth -1.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.20 EP