Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 15 at the 75

Tennessee Titans 17 – Los Angeles Chargers 27

(11:02) 3-J.Hekker punts 41 yards to LAC 34, Center-46-M.Cox. 12-D.Davis to LAC 40 for 6 yards (88-D.Martin-Robinson; 36-J.Chestnut).

The Three Options

GO -2.50 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.09 EP
73% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.23 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model