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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 19

Tennessee Titans 17 – Los Angeles Chargers 27

What Actually Happened

(4:23) 6-J.Slye 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +2.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.55 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 19, worth -0.54 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
What Happened
  • 93% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.14 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP