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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 65

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(9:18) 11-J.Stout punts 49 yards to MIN 16, Center-46-N.Moore. 4-M.Price to MIN 16 for no gain (38-K.Martin).

The Three Options

GO -1.08 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.96 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 65, worth -3.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 23, worth -1.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model