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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 5 at the 60

Minnesota Vikings 10 – Baltimore Ravens 6

What Actually Happened

(:40) 17-R.Wright punts 54 yards to BAL 6, Center-42-A.DePaola. 83-L.Wester to BAL 25 for 19 yards (96-T.Batty).

The Three Options

GO -0.65 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.54 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 60, worth -2.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 19, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model