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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 46

Minnesota Vikings 10 – Baltimore Ravens 19

What Actually Happened

(5:50) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass incomplete short middle to 3-J.Addison (3-C.Awuzie). PENALTY on MIN-19-A.Thielen, Illegal Blindside Block, 15 yards, enforced at BAL 46.

The Three Options

GO +0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.03 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 46, worth -2.46 EP
KICK -0.55 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 13, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model