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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 15 at the 25

Minnesota Vikings 10 – Baltimore Ravens 19

What Actually Happened

(2:20) 16-W.Reichard 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +0.67 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.35 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25, worth -0.86 EP
KICK +1.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 35, worth -1.79 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model