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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 13

Minnesota Vikings 13 – Baltimore Ravens 27

What Actually Happened

(7:19) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass incomplete short right to 18-J.Jefferson (2-N.Wiggins).

The Three Options

GO +2.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.19 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 13, worth -0.38 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 23, worth -1.02 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model