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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 10 at the 10

Minnesota Vikings 13 – Baltimore Ravens 27

What Actually Happened

(3:28) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass short right to 1-J.Nailor for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +1.41 EP
What Happened
  • 28% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.85 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 10, worth -0.35 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -0.68 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.42 EP