Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 60

Minnesota Vikings 19 – Baltimore Ravens 27

(:21) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass incomplete short left to 33-A.Jones [45-M.Green].

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP

What Happened

49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +0.50 EP
51% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 60, worth -0.68 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model