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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 63

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(2:14) 17-R.Wright punts 48 yards to BAL 15, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 83-L.Wester.

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.12 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 63, worth -3.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 21, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP