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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 7 at the 82

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 11-J.Stout punts 39 yards to MIN 43, Center-46-N.Moore, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.40 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.86 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 82, worth -4.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 40, worth -2.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model