4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 66

Buffalo Bills 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(12:23) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 58 yards to MIA 8, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 6-M.Washington.

The Three Options

GO +0.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.49 EP
  • 24% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 66, worth -3.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 24, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.20 EP