Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 15 at the 54

Buffalo Bills 6 – Miami Dolphins 23

(4:53) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 10-K.Shakir to MIA 30 for 24 yards (25-T.Dodson) [2-B.Chubb].

The Three Options

GO -0.65 EP

What Happened

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.21 EP
68% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 54, worth -2.47 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model