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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 49

Buffalo Bills 0 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(1:22) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep right to 85-J.Hawes (29-M.Fitzpatrick).

The Three Options

GO +1.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +3.34 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.78 EP
KICK -1.30 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 14, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model