4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 8 at the 8

New York Jets 14 – Cleveland Browns 14

What Actually Happened

(3:54) 6-N.Folk 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

The Three Options

GO +1.62 EP
  • 30% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.75 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 8, worth -0.16 EP
KICK +1.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -0.62 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model