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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 15 at the 27

Cleveland Browns 14 – New York Jets 17

What Actually Happened

(:01) 25-A.Szmyt 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +0.66 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +2.80 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 27, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +2.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.95 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 37, worth -0.13 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model