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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 13 at the 58

New York Jets 17 – Cleveland Browns 17

What Actually Happened

(13:32) 14-A.McNamara punts 48 yards to CLE 10, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 84-G.Larvadain.

The Three Options

GO -1.34 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.16 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 58, worth -3.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 18, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model