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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 8 at the 57

New York Jets 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(11:46) 14-A.McNamara punts 52 yards to CLE 5, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-37-Q.Stiggers.

The Three Options

GO -0.70 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +3.19 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 57, worth -2.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 17, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model