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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 3 at the 67

New York Jets 17 – Cleveland Browns 17

What Actually Happened

(6:31) 14-A.McNamara punts 48 yards to CLE 19, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 84-G.Larvadain.

The Three Options

GO -0.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.96 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 67, worth -3.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.75 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 25, worth -0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model