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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 33

Cleveland Browns 17 – New York Jets 24

What Actually Happened

(10:21) (Shotgun) 8-D.Gabriel sacked at NYJ 40 for -7 yards (9-W.McDonald).

The Three Options

GO +1.99 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.79 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 33, worth -1.62 EP
KICK +0.46 EP
  • 71% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 43, worth -2.17 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model