4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 19

New York Jets 24 – Cleveland Browns 17

What Actually Happened

(6:17) 6-N.Folk 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

The Three Options

GO +0.96 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.16 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 19, worth -0.69 EP
KICK +1.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 29, worth -1.32 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model