Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 61

Cleveland Browns 7 – New York Jets 14

(1:55) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 47 yards to NYJ 14, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 18-I.Williams to NYJ 22 for 8 yards (41-C.Edmonds; 86-B.Whiteheart).

The Three Options

GO -1.29 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.36 EP
62% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 61, worth -3.57 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model