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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 48

Chicago Bears 7 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(2:13) (Shotgun) 4-D.Swift left tackle to NYG 39 for 9 yards (8-J.Holland).

The Three Options

GO +0.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.85 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 48, worth -2.36 EP
KICK -1.08 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 14, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model