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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Chicago Bears
4th & 4 at the 33
Chicago Bears 7 – New York Giants 7
What Actually Happened
(1:13) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short right to 4-D.Swift.
The Three Options
GO
+1.46 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.89 EP
- 51% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 33, worth -0.87 EP
KICK
+1.11 EP
- 72% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
- 28% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 43, worth -1.57 EP
PUNT
+0.22 EP
- New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.22 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
