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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 10 at the 14

New York Giants 7 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(:07) 37-Y.Koo 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +0.98 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +3.20 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 14, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +2.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.92 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24, worth -0.02 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model