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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 59

Chicago Bears 7 – New York Giants 17

What Actually Happened

(9:21) 19-T.Taylor punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-46-S.Daly, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.69 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 59, worth -3.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 18, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model