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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 53

New York Giants 17 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(7:36) 6-J.Dart right end to CHI 43 for 10 yards (31-K.Byard).

The Three Options

GO +1.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.63 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 53, worth -3.04 EP
KICK -1.88 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.50 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.78 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 15, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model