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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 4

Chicago Bears 7 – New York Giants 17

What Actually Happened

(:38) 8-C.Santos 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +2.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.74 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 4, worth +0.46 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP