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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 1

New York Giants 17 – Chicago Bears 10

What Actually Happened

(10:21) 37-Y.Koo 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan. Penalty on CHI, Defensive Too Many Men on Field, declined.

The Three Options

GO +3.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.49 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 1, worth +0.67 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.36 EP