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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 6 at the 39

New York Giants 20 – Chicago Bears 10

What Actually Happened

(6:20) 12-J.Gillan punts 30 yards to CHI 9, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 12-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO +0.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.67 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 39, worth -1.77 EP
KICK -0.05 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 48, worth -2.35 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP