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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 18 at the 73

New York Giants 20 – Chicago Bears 17

What Actually Happened

(3:01) 12-J.Gillan punts 26 yards to CHI 47, Center-59-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.21 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.70 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 73, worth -3.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 31, worth -1.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model