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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 51

Chicago Bears 7 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(:48) 19-T.Taylor punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-46-S.Daly, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.15 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 51, worth -2.54 EP
KICK -1.38 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 14, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP