Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 14 at the 73

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

(13:07) 13-B.Pinion punts 55 yards to CAR 18, Center-49-L.McCullough. 23-T.Etienne to CAR 27 for 9 yards (84-F.Franks).

The Three Options

GO -2.00 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.66 EP
69% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.09 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model