4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 4 at the 11

Carolina Panthers 7 – Atlanta Falcons 21

What Actually Happened

(:28) 10-R.Fitzgerald 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +2.11 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.16 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP
KICK +2.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 22, worth -0.38 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model