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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Carolina Panthers
4th & 1 at the 8
Carolina Panthers 16 – Atlanta Falcons 21
What Actually Happened
(8:15) 9-B.Young sacked at ATL 9 for -1 yards (55-K.Elliss).
The Three Options
GO
+3.53 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.48 EP
- 35% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 8, worth -0.04 EP
KICK
+1.44 EP
- 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
- 2% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -0.88 EP
PUNT
-0.17 EP
- Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
