Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 5 at the 73

Atlanta Falcons 21 – Carolina Panthers 16

(5:20) 13-B.Pinion punts 52 yards to CAR 21, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 23-T.Etienne.

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.55 EP
53% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.24 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model