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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 14 at the 59

Carolina Panthers 19 – Atlanta Falcons 21

What Actually Happened

(10:22) 6-S.Martin punts 41 yards to ATL 18, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-21-N.Scott.

The Three Options

GO -1.31 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.86 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 59, worth -2.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 18, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model