Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 10 at the 61

Atlanta Falcons 21 – Carolina Panthers 19

(8:01) 13-B.Pinion punts 54 yards to CAR 7, Center-49-L.McCullough, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.44 EP
66% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 61, worth -3.37 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model