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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 67

Carolina Panthers 19 – Atlanta Falcons 21

What Actually Happened

(5:13) 5-R.Dowdle left guard to CAR 35 for 2 yards (36-R.Harrison).

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.39 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 67, worth -3.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.87 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 25, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model