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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 5 at the 34

Atlanta Falcons 21 – Carolina Panthers 19

What Actually Happened

(2:48) 45-Z.Gonzalez 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.56 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +2.98 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.22 EP
KICK +0.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 44, worth -1.57 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model