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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 4 at the 59

Carolina Panthers 19 – Atlanta Falcons 24

What Actually Happened

(1:54) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 0-J.Sanders to ATL 49 for 10 yards (31-X.Watts).

The Three Options

GO -0.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.59 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 59, worth -1.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 18, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model