Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 14 at the 54

Carolina Panthers 7 – Atlanta Falcons 7

(1:07) 6-S.Martin punts 44 yards to ATL 10, Center-44-J.Jansen. 14-J.Agnew MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at ATL 5.

The Three Options

GO -1.39 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.12 EP
72% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 54, worth -3.15 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model