Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 8 at the 72

Cincinnati Bengals 6 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

(8:27) 8-R.Rehkow punts 61 yards to PIT 11, Center-46-W.Wagner. 19-C.Austin to PIT 23 for 12 yards (43-J.Giles-Harris).

The Three Options

GO -2.06 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.52 EP
60% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.41 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model