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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 7 at the 59

Cincinnati Bengals 6 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(2:03) 8-R.Rehkow punts 55 yards to PIT 4, Center-46-W.Wagner. 19-C.Austin pushed ob at PIT 7 for 3 yards (26-T.Anderson).

The Three Options

GO -1.07 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.29 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 59, worth -3.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 18, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model