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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 5 at the 25

Cincinnati Bengals 6 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(11:58) 2-E.McPherson 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

The Three Options

GO +1.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.55 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25, worth -1.22 EP
KICK +0.86 EP
What Happened
  • 84% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.41 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 35, worth -2.09 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP