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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 62

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 6

What Actually Happened

(2:16) Direct snap to 83-Co.Heyward. 83-Co.Heyward up the middle to PIT 39 for 1 yard (49-B.Carter; 42-O.Burks). Cincinnati challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)

The Three Options

GO +1.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.46 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 62, worth -3.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 21, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model