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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 54

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 6

What Actually Happened

(:18) 3-C.Waitman punts 44 yards to CIN 10, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 15-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +3.01 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 54, worth -2.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT +0.10 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 16, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP