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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 10 at the 31

Los Angeles Chargers 6 – Jacksonville Jaguars 35

What Actually Happened

(5:12) (Shotgun) 5-T.Lance sacked at JAX 38 for -7 yards (91-A.Armstead).

The Three Options

GO +0.60 EP
What Happened
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.20 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 31, worth -1.11 EP
KICK +1.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 41, worth -1.54 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.48 EP